王浩：“特朗普政府对华战略调整的双重逻辑及其互动”，《世界经济与政治》, 2018年第3期
Wang Hao, "Dual Logic of the Adjustment of the Trump Administration’s China Policy and Their Interactions,"
World Economics and Politics, No.3, 2018
【内容提要】美国的对华战略一直以来都是由安全与经济两个核心维度构成的,它们分别反映出地缘政治和国内政治两种逻辑。因此,这两种逻辑的互动决定了美国对华战略的走向。从安全维度看,战略制衡和战略克制是两种基本形态;从经济维度看,自由主义和民族主义成为两类政策取向。基于此,安全与经济的不同组合形塑出美国历史上的三种对华战略:地缘政治逻辑主导下的遏制(战略制衡+经济民族主义,1949—1971年)、地缘政治和国内政治逻辑交互主导下的接触(战略克制+经济自由主义,1972-2008年)以及双重逻辑共同作用下的对冲(战略制衡+经济自由主义,2009-2016年)。特朗普政府执政以来,美国的对华战略已转化为国内政治逻辑主导下的挂钩(战略克制+经济民族主义)这一新形态。然而与此同时,一种以地缘政治逻輯为基础的强硬对华战略思维正在成为美国主流政策精英的共识,并遂步开始作用于特朗普政府的对华外交实践。因此,美国对华战略的未来走向将取决于地缘政治一国内政治双重逻辑的互动和博弈。
【关键词】地缘政治；国内政治；特朗普政府；中美关系；双重逻辑
【作者简介】王浩,复旦大学美国研究中心讲师。
【Abstract】The author constructs a dual-logic analytic framework by introducing geopolitics and domestic politics to discuss the evolution of the U.S. China policy as well as its adjustment under the Trump Administration. In this framework, the U.S. China policy has two dimensions: security and economy, which reflect the logic of geopolitics and domestic politics respectively. Therefore, it is the dual logic of geopolitics-domestic policies and their interactions that determine the evolution of U.S. China policy. In terms of security, strategic balancing and strategic restraint are two basic forms, while in terms of economy, liberalism and nationalism are two main options. Therefore, we can summarize the evolution of the U. S. China policy as follows: geopolitics-dominated containment(strategic balancing and economic nationalism,1949-1971),geopolitics-dominated engagement (strategic restraint and economic liberalism, 1972-1991); domestic geopolitics-dominated engagement(strategic restraint and economic liberalism, 1992-2008); hedging with dual-logic(strategic balancing and economic liberalism,2009-2016).Since the Trump Administration took office, the U.S. China policy has been adjusted to a domestic politics-dominated linkage, which is featured by strategic restraint and economic nationalism. In the meantime, a tougher China policy thinking based on geopolitics is becoming the consensus of American establishment elites. Therefore, the future of the U.S. China policy will depend on the interactions of these two kinds of logics.
【Keywords】geopolitics, domestic politics, the Trump Administration, U.S.-China relations, dual logic
【Author】 Wang Hao, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of the Center for American Studies, Fudan University.